Today’s Best NBA Prop Bets: Horford, Hardaway Jr, Gafford

The Knicks jump out to a 2-0 series lead in the East Semis!

The #NBAPlayoffs presented by Google Pixel continue Thursday on ESPN 🍿 pic.twitter.com/1Hw7OerLXQ

— NBA (@NBA) May 9, 2024

Best Player Props Today

1. Celtics PF Al Horford Over 1½ Threes Made

I’m running it back one more time with Big Al. He owes us after shooting 1-of-5 from downtown in the Game 1 win. During the regular season, he made at least two three-pointers in 17-of-23 games, where he took at least five attempts from three-point territory. Clearly, we were on the wrong end of it in Game 1. Kristaps Porzingis remains out for Boston after suffering a calf injury that will likely keep him out for the remainder of this series. Porzingis is the Celtics’ ultimate difference maker this season, and they will need him to return to full health if they want to advance to win an NBA Championship. Boston will continue to turn to trusted veteran Al Horford to start in place of the injured Unicorn.

The good news for Boston is that they have one of the deepest rosters in the NBA and have the luxury of inserting Horford, with years of playoff experience, into the starting lineup. Boston led the league in 3-point attempts (42.5) per game. All reports suggest Jarrett Allen will remain out for the Cavs. He’s an excellent defender that Horford won’t have to deal with. Horford has knocked down at least two three-pointers in six of his last eight matchups against the Cavs without Porzingis.

Reminder that Al Horford has been playing in the NBA so long that he actually played against Rajon Rondo in college 😂 pic.twitter.com/rJ1ZLKatPe

— Adam☘️ (@CelticsAdam34) May 9, 2024

Horford averaged 23.5 minutes in the first three games against Miami with Porzingis and saw his minutes bump to 34 after Porzingis went down. Game 5 was a blowout, as only Jayson Tatum and Jrue Holiday played more than 30 minutes in the win. Horford played 19 games in the regular season without Porzingis and splashed at least two triples in 14. I expect Horford to play over 30 minutes tonight, and he has knocked down at least two shots from beyond the arc in 16-of-24 games where he was on the floor for at least 30 minutes. During the regular season, he knocked down at least two shots from beyond the arc in 6-of-9 games at home without Kristaps. Fire up, Big Al!

2. Mavericks SG Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 5½ Points

One thing to watch for in this game is the bench usage for the Dallas Mavericks. Jason Kidd took Daniel Gafford off the floor in the fourth quarter, who was dominating with his physicality throughout the game, but he opted to play Tim Hardaway Jr. Plenty of people were confused as to why Kidd pulled Gafford, and I believe it was because he realized the Mavs needed a spark of three-point shooting to catch up to OKC. THJ suffered a sprained ankle in the first round against the Clippers, and he missed two weeks. Game 1 was his first action since the injury, so some rust was expected.

JDUB WITH 8 IN A ROW

THE WHOLE ARENA IS BARKING pic.twitter.com/5ggLxu055o

— #1 Thunder Film Room (@ThunderFilmRoom) May 8, 2024

The Thunder have been excellent defensively this postseason, having yet to allow more than 95 points in all five playoff games. However, they have a significant weakness in defending corner three-pointers. OKC allowed the second-most corner threes per game (4.5) behind only the Chicago Bulls. In Game 1, we saw Josh Green knock down three corner threes off the bench for Dallas. Hardaway Jr. played 17 minutes in Game 1 and finished with two points on 1-of-5 shooting. I expect a better showing tonight from the Mavs top scorer off the bench, who also knocked down the most corner threes for Dallas this season.

3. Mavericks C Daniel Gafford Over 7½ Rebounds

If you’re wondering why this looks familiar, it’s because we cashed on Gafford at 6½ rebounds in Game 1! BetUS Sportsbook has only bumped this number up by one after Daniel Gafford finished with 16 points and 11 rebounds. A few teams this season were worse on the glass than the Mavericks, including the Thunder. Oklahoma City is lacking size and length outside of Chet. This will likely be their ultimate downfall and they should have been in the trade market for a big like Dallas was at the deadline. The Thunder sat on their hands while the Mavs went out and acquired Gafford from the Washington Wizards at the trade deadline. The athletic center averaged 20 minutes per game in Round 1 against the Clippers. He failed to exceed this line in all five healthy matchups, but I expect a strong performance in this series.

Daniel Gafford DENIES JDub 🚫 pic.twitter.com/wRS4dhhYEr

— NBA on TNT (@NBAonTNT) May 8, 2024

The Thunder allowed the fifth-most rebounds per game to opposing centers and the seventh-most rebounds per game overall. Dallas will be without Maxi Kleber after he suffered a shoulder injury in Round 1, which will only increase the minutes Gafford is on the floor. In three games this season without Kleber, Gafford finished with 10, 7, 15, and 11 rebounds. Gafford played OKC three times during the regular season: once with Washington, where he had nine rebounds, and twice since being traded to Dallas when he finished with nine and 15 rebounds! Since the trade to Dallas, Gafford has pulled down at least seven rebounds in 15 of 21 games (71.4%), where he played at least 20 minutes. He finished with seven rebounds seven times with Dallas, so this could be a sweat. With the Mavs down 1-0 in this series, I expect a few more calls to go their way tonight. As long as Jason Kidd doesn’t insert Tim Hardaway Jr. into the rotation in place of Gafford, he has a great chance to reach double-digit rebounds again.

Big man said N🚫PE pic.twitter.com/y2pVsFB7zv

— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) May 8, 2024

Questions of the Day