Lionheart’s Last Stand? Betting on Smith vs Petrino at UFC 301
The Ultimate Fighting Championship is set to ignite “Marvelous City,” Rio de Janeiro, on Saturday, May 4th. This UFC 301 pay-per-view is a testament to the rich Brazilian talent that is sure to captivate the masses.
Prepare for a clash of styles and generations as one of the main card bouts features a seasoned veteran of the game, Anthony “Lionheart” Smith. However, UFC odds are hinting at a potential upset, expecting an O.G. downfall when he’s faced with an unbeaten prospect, Vitor Petrino, who’s looking to extend an 11-0 (7 KOs) record.
Let’s jump straight into our UFC 301 main card preview of Smith vs Petrino, as I’m back to cover another highly anticipated contest from every angle.
Rio we are on our way ✈️#UFC301 Fight Week has begun 🚨
[ B2YB @CryptoCom ] pic.twitter.com/FJcZFj3QPe— UFC (@ufc) April 29, 2024
UFC 301 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, May. 4, 2024 at 6:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Jeunesse Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Main Event Bout: Alexandre Pantoja vs Steve Erceg
- Co-Main Event Bout: Jose Aldo vs Jonathan Martinez
- Moneyline Probability: Petrino – 86.7% (-650) Smith – 19% (+425)
- UFC 301 Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass
Vitor Petrino: 11-0 Contender
Eleven straight victories have kicked off the perfect start to Vitor Petrino’s pro-MMA career, and aged just 26 behind a 4-0 UFC record; we seemingly have a scary prospect on our hands.
Petrino, with his 11 straight victories and a 4-0 UFC record at the age of just 26, is a force to be reckoned with. While he may not excel in one particular aspect of MMA or dazzle with flashy techniques, his combination of power, all-around fundamentals, and sheer athleticism has proven to be a winning formula, making him a formidable opponent.
Practice makes perfect 👊@VitorPetrino | #UFC301 pic.twitter.com/Ar02rodmFm
— UFC (@ufc) May 1, 2024
Anthony Smith: Lionheart or Past His Prime?
Hard times have fallen on the former light heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith of late, and with three losses in his four most recent bouts, he’s been “gifted” with an unbeaten prospect in Vitor Petrino, who’ll be looking to make a statement via “Lionheart” household name.
At age 35, Smith is a veteran of the game, but sometimes, experience is just not enough. Saturday’s bout will be athleticism versus technique, although a career in analyst commentary could be a sign that the American already has one foot out of the door.
Smith Isn’t Happy
During Wednesday’s UFC 301 media day, Smith fired back at the ever-growing criticism from the MMA fan base around some of the hot takes he’s had recently:
“Well, some of the positions that I put myself in is being an analyst… Fans are stupid. You guys write an article, and they don’t read the articles. They just read the headline and make up the rest in their head. If they read it, almost everything I say makes a lot of sense. Maybe occasionally, have some crazy takes, but it’s not that often.”
“Fans are stupid… They just read the headline [of an article] and make up the rest in their head.”
Anthony Smith says he doesn’t care about undue criticism from fans because “the fighters know [he’s] speaking the truth” 🗣️ #UFC301 pic.twitter.com/KIZh4S6Z5h
— MMA Fighting (@MMAFighting) May 1, 2024
Petrino vs Smith Betting Trends
- Petrino is undefeated (11-0) as a pro with eight wins inside the distance
- Smith has lost two of his four most recent bouts via KO/TKO
- Smith has won just one of his previous four UFC bouts
Petrino vs Smith: The Tale of The Tape
Petrino vs Smith: Stylistic Breakdown
Opposed to a Muay Thai specialist like Smith, Petrino will likely lose a technical striking war. However, the current state of Smith’s durability means that the younger, faster, and more powerful man will only need one.
As he could falter in the volume game, Petrino is no slouch when it comes to wrestling, and Smith has notably slacked in this area previously. I can visualize the Brazilian finding success with the low kicks, and should he feel uncomfortable in the stand-up, dragging Smith to the mat would be another viable path to victory.
Una estrella brasileña en ascenso que salió de DWCS con este KO @VitorPetrino😱 #UFC301
BOLETOS👉 https://t.co/F1mAwU5nOp pic.twitter.com/4z503gRQd6
— UFC Español (@UFCEspanol) May 1, 2024
Don’t completely count Smith out. Sure, he’s old, much slower than his prime years, and unquestionably, his confidence levels have been knocked. But in a volume game, if Petrino accepts a stand-up engagement, the underdog can certainly prevail.
Unfortunately, Smith could win the first two rounds and become a victim of Petrino’s power in the third, and the age factor stands out in this contest. Never say never, but to find success, Smith must avoid takedowns at all costs and steer clear from slugfest by keeping the striking exchanges as technical as possible.
Anthony Smith Claims He Got Vertigo in The Fight Against Khalil Rountree pic.twitter.com/fsFT3HfWAQ
— MMA WIZZ 🥷 (@themmawizz) April 30, 2024
Petrino and Smith Betting Odds Insight
The UFC 301 odds are brimming with juiced lines, and Petrino is one of them. Is he the rightful favorite? Yes, undoubtedly, but the moneyline has reached -650 territory, thus giving me no choice but to scour the proposition markets for a decent chunk of value.
Petrino has all the tools to become a serious contender in the future, but currently, he’s too green and lacks in multiple areas, which gives cause for concern. I believe the time to fade him will come, but I can’t trust Smith to be that guy!
Smith called us MMA fans stupid, so karma is coming, and Khalil Rountree’s devastating knockout of “Lionheart” will be replicated this weekend. He wants to hope one of those MMA fans doesn’t invade his home; we know how that turns out.
Petrino’s athleticism still takes the dub on Saturday through all his weaknesses, and we’ll take the plus-money on the KO-prop.
Modestas Bukauskas’ eyes roll back after brutal left hook KO from Vitor Petrino. #ufc301 #ufc #mma #knockout #ko #tko #lefthook pic.twitter.com/vOVfu6PgPW
— Alex Silverstein (@silversteinmma) May 1, 2024
Questions of the Day
What time is UFC 301?
The UFC 301 broadcast starts at 6:00 PM ET with the early preliminary bouts.
Is Alex Pereira fighting at UFC 301 in Brazil?
Despite the rumors, Alex Pereira sustained multiple foot injuries during his UFC 300 title bout, thus preventing him from competing in Rio de Janeiro.
