Take Timberwolves to Cover vs Mavs Without Doncic

· Dec 28 - 5 minutes read

The Western Conference is already heating up and the Minnesota Timberwolves are surprisingly at the top. They will face the Dallas Mavericks at home in their next game, becoming a decent option for NBA betting picks.

The Mavericks lost the first of a back-to-back to the Cleveland Cavaliers 113-110 despite another incredible game from Luka Doncic, who is expected to sit out Thursday’s matchup. In the Timberwolves’ last game, they were blown out by the Oklahoma City Thunder 129-106, not getting much help from a supporting cast that is usually productive.

Take Mavs to Cover Spread vs Timberwolves

Mavericks vs Timberwolves Game Information

Game: Mavericks (18-13) vs. Timberwolves (22-7)
Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Day/Time: Thursday, Dec. 28, 8:00 p.m. ET
Mavericks vs Timberwolves Live Stream: NBA Game Pass

The current top seed in the West, the Timberwolves, will be hosting the Mavericks, a team that might not be playing at the same level but is good enough to challenge NBA basketball picks. The Mavericks have the talent to challenge the Timberwolves on the road, but it might be hard without Doncic.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves Odds and Spreads

Betting Odds Calculator

Mavericks vs Timberwolves Betting Trends

Under is 5-0 in Mavericks last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Mavericks last 5 games as an underdog.
Under is 5-0 in Mavericks last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater.
Under is 4-0 in Mavericks last 4 games as a road underdog.
Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater.

Over/Under Pick: Under 226½ -110

Even though the Timberwolves did not win their last game, they are still one of the top teams in the West. NBA predictions did not know what to expect of the second season featuring a Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert frontcourt and a reliance on Anthony Edwards to take another leap. So far, it has worked out.

Despite the loss to the Thunder, Edwards still looked like one of the top young players in the league with 25 points, seven rebounds and six assists. He has continued to grow as a player, with his improvement on both ends of the court helping solidify the Towns-Gobert pairing.

However, in the loss to the Thunder, there was not much support for Edwards on the offensive end. Towns ended with only 17 points while Gobert is not known for being an offensive threat. To remain on top of the West, Edwards will need that offensive support.

That loss should not shift NBA odds too much now facing the Mavericks. The Timberwolves are one of the league’s best teams at home with a 12-1 record, the second-fewest losses. Furthermore, Minnesota allows the fewest points per game with the best defensive rating, which should help keep this game low-scoring.

Against the Spread Pick: Timberwolves -13

It is hard to bet on a team without its best player on the court for NBA picks. It had the makings of a promising matchup with the way Doncic has been playing. Doncic has been unstoppable this season, playing like a player worthy of being in the MVP conversation.

Luka Doncic has been averaging 39 points over the last 6 games heading into tonight’s Mavs-Cavs matchup.

50 @ PHX
39 v SAS
28 v LAC
38 @ DEN
40 @ POR
39 v MIN

MVP frontrunner? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/i5gmJbmVCd

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) December 27, 2023

Doncic is averaging 33.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 9.4 assists, posting unreal numbers that are normal for him. He has been even better in December, putting up 37.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 11.6 assists over 11 games this month.

However, with him out, resting on the second half of a back-to-back, that changes everything. The Mavericks’ offense falls apart without him, especially facing the best statistical defense in the league in the Timberwolves.

Tha immediately leans NBA picks away from the Mavericks, who could have challenged the Timberwolves against the spread if Doncic was playing.

Player Prop Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 21.5 Points (-115)

With Donic now out of this game, that immediately throws a wrench into the Mavericks’ plans of covering in this game. On top of that, they have a defense that is ranked in the bottom third of the NBA. That opens the door for Towns to have a big game, feasting on the Mavericks’ weak defense.

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