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UFC 300: My Betting Advice and In-Depth Breakdown for Pereira vs Hill

The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s landmark 300th pay-per-view event is finally upon us. The evening’s main event, a light heavyweight championship bout, is a momentous occasion, and I’m here to share my UFC expert picks. Alex Pereira is the fastest-rising two-division champion in UFC history. Still, Jamahal Hill seeks redemption by claiming back the gold he was forced to relinquish due to injury on the biggest stage. The excitement is palpable; our betting lines are live, and with that said, let’s jump straight into our deep dive into the highly anticipated UFC 300 main event.


UFC 300: My Betting Advice and In-Depth Breakdown for Pereira vs Hill
UFC 300: My Betting Advice and In-Depth Breakdown for Pereira vs Hill

UFC 300 Information

  • Date & Time: Saturday, April. 13, 2024 – 06:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
  • UFC Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass
  • Main Event Bout: Alex Pereira vs Jamahal Hill
  • Co-Main Event Bout: Weili Zhang vs. Xiaonan Yan
  • Moneyline Probability: Pereira – 56.5% (-130) Hill – 50% (+100)


Pereira vs Hill Betting Odds

UFC 300: Fighter Previews

Alex “Poatan” Pereira

From a former two-division GLORY Kickboxing champion to claiming championships in two UFC weight classes within three years and just seven fights, the journey of Brazil’s Alex Pereira is nothing short of remarkable. His accomplishments demand respect, regardless of your support.

It’s been a rapid and, quite frankly, extremely fast rise for Pereira, one that may never be replicated again. After becoming the first middleweight to knock out Israel Adesanya and take the gold, “Poatan” later set his sights on the light heavyweight strap and did the unthinkable when becoming just the ninth two-division champion, but also the fastest to do so of all eight that came before him in a mere seven UFC bouts.


  • Moneyline Odds: Pereira @ -130
  • Pereira Betting Trends
  • Four of Pereira’s seven UFC bouts ended in the first two rounds
  • Pereira has won 67% of his UFC bouts via KO/TKO


Jamahal “Sweet Dreams” Hill

Despite the hype and fame around his opponent this weekend, don’t force your best UFC bets tonight without considering how Jamahal Hill has the potential to de-rail Brazil’s finest at the T-Mobile arena.

Hill not only matches Pereira in size but also in ferocious knockout power. He additionally witnessed a quick rise to claiming UFC gold after defeating Glover Teixeira – Pereira’s teammate – in his eighth promotional bout.

Injury woes forced Hill to surrender his championship, and while a year-long layoff wasn’t planned, there’s no greater schedule to mark his return than at the biggest event, potentially, in UFC history.

  • Moneyline Odds: Hill @ +100
  • Hill Betting Trends
  • Hill has gone the distance in just two of his eight UFC bouts
  • Hill has won three of his previous four UFC bouts via KO/TKO



Pereira vs Hill: Tale of The Tape

Pro Record (Win/Loss)
7 KOs, 0 Submissions
7 KOs, 0 Submissions
Avg Fight Time
Knockdown Avg (15 min)
Avg Strikes Landed Per Min
Takedown Avg (15 min)
Win/Loss (Last 5)


UFC 300: Main Event Breakdown & Analysis

Pereira Fight Style & How Can Pereira Defeat Hill.

Kickboxing is his background, and kickboxing has been Pereira’s game plan in every pro-MMA bout he’s competed in. Therefore, don’t anticipate any double-leg takedowns from the champ because that powerful left hook he’s most known for has been money thus far, and we can expect him to hunt for that knockout blow cerebrally.

Pereira’s striking game isn’t difficult to understand, but it’s certainly challenging to overcome. He throws low kicks and mixes up some body shots, distracting the opposition before that power hook comes out of nowhere.

Hill’s chin hasn’t been tested to date, but he’s also never fought an opponent with Pereira’s kickboxing credentials. That said, with the openings Hill has often exposed himself to in the past, he’s certainly hittable, so it should be a textbook blueprint for the champ as he looks for his eighth career knockout victory.

Hill Fight Style & How Can Hill Defeat Periera

Similarly, Pereira is very much a hittable fighter. We’ve seen this in his contests with Adesanya, Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, and even Bruno Silva. The problem is that most fighters have to give one and be prepared to take one back, as the Brazilian wastes no time utilizing his counter-striking ability.

For Hill, you could say he owns a durability advantage in this contest. His lone career loss was via TKO, but an arm injury mid-fight led to the stoppage. We’ve barely seen him rocked, but oppositely, the power he generates can put the opposition on wobbly legs real quick!

Pereira’s chin has been compromised on multiple occasions, and this doesn’t bode well versus Hill, who is possibly the hardest hitter the defending champion has ever faced. Hill loves to back his opponents against the cage before letting loose, and ultimately, this is a position where I can envision him becoming the second man to flatline Pereira via KO/TKO.

Pereira vs Hill Betting Prediction:

UFC 300 Best Bet: Under 1 ½ Rounds [+140]

I believe the fighter to take a backfoot in this contest will not just lose a confidence battle but will ultimately surrender their best defense, which is offense! We’ve seen both men leave their chins in the air, and while their offensive striking styles are polar opposites, the knockout threat will be constantly present from each fighter.

Las Vegas UFC 300 betting odds are tight for a reason, but instead of flipping a coin on the side, I see betting value on the over/under, which could intrigue bettors having difficulty selecting an outright winner.

With two ruthless power punchers entering the cage who don’t present the most noteworthy striking defense, I struggle to see how this title bout will go deep into the later rounds. I understand we aren’t given much time with the total set at 1 ½; however, the +140 sportsbook odds don’t align with the knockout potential inside the octagon.



UFC 300 Main Event Prediction: The Crystal Ball

In this striker-v-striker matchup, a quick rub of my crystal ball reveals that Alex Pereira’s chin will be tested once again. Although he’s a formidable kickboxing talent with knockout potential of his own, it’ll be the durability factor of Hill’s chin that sees him collect a round-one knockout.


Potential UFC Bets from a Jamahal Hill Round 1 KO/TKO:

  • Under 1 ½ Rounds (Best Bet) [+140]
  • Hill Moneyline [+100]
  • Hill By KO, TKO, or DQ [+160]
  • Hill Round 1 [+500]
  • Fight To Go The Distance/No [-425]




Questions of the Day

What’s the best prop bet for the UFC 300 main event?

With a price tag of +500, Jamahal Hill to win by Round 1 KO/TKO cannot be ignored from a value standpoint.

Who’s the biggest underdog at UFC 300?

Cody Brundage, priced at a +850 moneyline, enters UFC 300 as the biggest underdog with his scheduled bout versus the undefeated Bo Nickal.

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