NBA Offseason This Week: Harden, Green and Leonard to Affect Betting
This week could be considered the start of the 2023-24 season, with teams hosting media days, starting training camps and the first preseason game being played in Abu Dhabi. With that, betting lines for the NBA season will start to take a clearer shape.
Here is some top news that could affect lines as the new NBA season gradually approaches.
Harden’s Arrival At 76ers Training Camp
Trade demands from star point guards Damian Lillard and James Harden have been key moments of this offseason. With Lillard being traded to the Milwaukee Bucks last week, the next domino to fall is Harden. Like with the Lillard deal, Harden will change basketball NBA picks whenever his deal gets done, or if it never happens.
The trade demand is due to a growing rift between Philadelphia 76ers President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey and Harden. It started when Harden called Morey a liar this offseason because he had opted into the last year of his contract, expecting to be traded shortly after.
Harden’s value has plummeted due to this being his third trade request in three years and the fact he wants a max-contract extension from his future team. He did average the most assists per game last season but, despite that, all of the other issues that come with Harden, including poor playoff performances, are reasons why teams are not lining up to acquire him.
Morey isn’t making it easier, demanding a star player in return for Harden to keep reigning MVP Joel Embiid, who wants to compete for an NBA Championship, happy.
James Harden is here. pic.twitter.com/gmIzKLQRXi
— Austin Krell (@NBAKrell) October 5, 2023
Harden skipped the 76ers media day but did meet the team in Colorado for training camp. This is different from the last times that Harden demanded a trade, showing up overweight to play for the Houston Rockets in 2020 and visibly upset with the Brooklyn Nets in 2021.
While unlikely, given how bad things have gotten between Harden and Morey, it is interesting to see him back with the team. It looks like Harden will start the season with the 76ers, and if fences are mended, maybe he will play out the season, boosting the team’s NBA Finals odds. Furthermore, if he plays well enough, maybe Morey can flip him for the star talent he wants, possibly even making the 76ers’ NBA title odds even better.
Holiday to the Celtics
This season, the biggest NBA news is still the fallout from the Lillard’s trade. In that deal, the Portland Trail Blazers received Jrue Holiday from the Milwaukee Bucks, a player they would immediately want to flip.
The Trail Blazers didn’t take long to find a trade partner, shipping Holiday off to the Boston Celtics, a direct rival of the Bucks. Both teams are looking to win the Eastern Conference. The Celtics needed a defensive-minded guard after trading away Marcus Smart this offseason to acquire Kristaps Porziņģis. Holiday is also a much better offensive player than Smart.
The additions of both Holiday and Porziņģis this season make the Celtics clear favorites in NBA lines to reach the Finals out of the East, along with the Bucks. Boston had to trade away a lot of its depth, but it still has all the pieces to be a Finals contender.
On the other hand, the Trail Blazers have sneakily built a solid young team. NBA betting still expects them to be the worst team in the Western Conference, but with the additions of Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams and Deandre Ayton, there is somewhat of a core that could put up a fight. They are added to a young growing core, which could be scrappy in NBA spreads.
Brogdon will likely be on the trading block, but he might start the new season with the Trail Blazers, without there being an immediate trade demand for him. When he is moved, that would worsen the team at the moment but add more value for the future.
Green Injury Could Shape Early Week in the West
NBA predictions do not have the Golden State Warriors as the favorites to win the West, but they are certainly a team in the running. However, they will be with Draymond Green for the start of the season.
REPORT: Draymond Green suffered a sprained left ankle and could take “three to six weeks” to recover, per @JDumasReports. pic.twitter.com/dHVSV3jaKK
— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) September 30, 2023
Green suffered an ankle injury that could take three to six weeks to heal. While he might only miss, at most, the first few weeks of the season, it is still something to think about when making NBA picks on the Warriors. Green is a crucial part of the Warriors’ defense, and without him, they will start slow. On top of that, there is no real substitute for Green and what he does for this team.
The Warriors traded for Chris Paul this offseason to be a potential bench piece, but it seems like he could be thrown right into the starting lineup. Paul was acquired as an experiment to see if he could fit with the team, but without Green, that might make him a little more necessary at the start of the season.
It will be a lot to put on Paul’s shoulders to replace Green early, instead of easing him into things with his new team. At least for bettors, we will know if Paul can gel into the Warriors team or be a failed experiment early in his tenure with the team. That could change some of the future bets for the Warriors.
Leonard Cryptic Comments on Load Management
With the league cracking down on load management and trying to get its stars to play in more marquee games, Kawhi Leonard has been seen as the poster boy of that movement. Since he was with the Toronto Raptors in 2018-19, Leonard has always sat out some games, especially back-to-backs, to stay healthy.
However, that will be much harder to do this season, with the league set to impose heavier fines and stricter rules on awards based, making a game-played requirement. During the Los Angeles Clippers media day, Leonard was asked about the rules and how they might affect his season.
“When I was with the Raptors, it was different. I was coming off an injury. You have to know the details… If the NBA is trying to mock that, then they should stop. Other than that, if I’m able to play, I’ll play basketball.”
Kawhi Leonard fires back the load management claims.… pic.twitter.com/3LI5qLqAMg
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) October 2, 2023
Leonard did say that if he is healthy, he will play, which could change NBA odds for the Clippers. When healthy, he is arguably one of the top players in the league, and if he is this season, the Clippers could be better than most expect. However, Leonard has seemingly never been healthy while with the Clippers, so it could just end up being the same old with this team, and the new rules have little to no effect.
