Patriots vs Packers Betting Analysis
Hoyer Steps In for Injured Jones
There was a time when a matchup between the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers would conjure up the possibility of a football flying through the air and the points piling up. However, only three AFC teams have scored fewer points than the Patriots, and among the NFC teams who haven’t lost their starting quarterback to injury, only the Seattle Seahawks have put up fewer points than Green Bay in the first three games of the season.
It might surprise some that the Patriots are averaging more yards per game than the Packers. Green Bay’s defense is bailing out the offense as the Packers are fourth among NFC teams in total defense.
According to the NFL odds, the Patriots (+2500) are third in the odds to win the AFC East championship, while the Packers are the -120 favorites in the NFC North. The Packers (+400) are tied for second in the odds to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
New England Patriots
As if the Patriots offense didn’t have enough issues and question marks, now the New England Patriots are without starting quarterback Mac Jones. Veteran Brian Hoyer will step in at QB but don’t expect him to be anything more than a game manager.
The last time Hoyer started multiple games in the same season came in 2018 when he was 0-6 as the starting quarterback in San Francisco. Second-year running back Rhamondre Stevenson is showing some potential. Still, when it comes to dynamic playmakers on the offensive side of the ball, there wasn’t much to choose from even before Jones suffered an ankle injury late in last week’s game.
After managing one catch in the first two games. Devante Parker broke out with 156 yards in last week’s loss to Baltimore. He will look to build on that effort.
Deatrich Wise already had four sacks, and his next one will match his career high of five in his rookie season back in 2017. Along with Matthew Judon, they will lead a pass rush that will try to disrupt Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
“You’re going against one of the best players in the National Football League…if you love football, that’s what it’s about.”
Patriots coaches on preparing to face Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. pic.twitter.com/sUprZPTt4Y
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 27, 2022
New England is just 0-4-1 against the NFL betting lines in its last five games.
Green Bay Packers
The good news is that Aaron Rodgers is completing more than 72% of his passes so far. However, he has just four touchdown passes. Injuries at the receiver position haven’t helped. Sammy Watkins added some big-play potential; however, he is out for the rest of the year. Rookie Romeo Doubs leads Green Bay in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, but his 9.8 yards per reception needs to improve.
Christian Watson was the first of the receivers selected by the Green Bay Packers in the 2022 NFL Draft, but he has had very little impact so far, and the same is true for veterans Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard.
Getting left tackle David Bakhtiari back is huge for the Packers, as he is an elite pass protector. Aaron Jones is off to a strong start, averaging 6.8 yards per carry.
Three Packers have at least two sacks, with linebacker Rashan Gary leading the way with three. However, no other Green Bay player has a sack. Having cornerback Jaire Alexander back has made a difference already.
Something to consider for those who bet online: The Packers are 14-6 against the spread in their last 20 games.
Patriots vs Packers Injury Report
Patriots vs Packers Head-to-Head
Since the start of the 2000 season, Green Bay and New England have met every four seasons. The last time the teams played, the Patriots won 31-17 as a five-point favorite at home.
Most of the key offensive players from both teams have moved on except for the Green Bay duo of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who had two touchdown passes, and running back Aaron Jones (75 rushing yards).
The home team has won each of the last three games in the series, while five of the last six contests have gone under the total.
Patriots vs Packers Game Information
- Records: Patriots 1-2 vs Packers 2-1
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 2nd
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay
- Patriots vs Packers Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
Patriots vs Packers Betting Lines
Patriots vs Packers Prediction
Don’t be surprised to see Green Bay try to establish the run after being limited to 67 yards and 2.7 yards per carry against Vita Vea and the rest of the Tampa Bay defense. The Patriots are allowing 200 rushing yards per game.
With three receivers already on injured reserve, the last thing the Patriots need is to have Jakobi Meyers listed as questionable for Sunday’s game.
The total has gone over in five of the Patriots’ last seven games. However, six of the last eight contests went under on the road. The total went under in four of Green Bay’s last five games. Green Bay is due to break out and while picking a Bill Belichick team to lose by two scores is a risky proposition, these are trying times for the Patriots.