NFC South Free Agency Report and Futures Betting Odds
As NFL free agency approaches, starting officially on March 13 at 4 p.m. ET with negotiations opening on March 11, I’m here to guide you through the unfolding drama, particularly from the perspective of the NFC South teams.
What are the primary areas these teams need to strengthen? Which key players might depart in free agency? What’s the available cap space? Who are the potential draft picks that could contribute? And, importantly, what changes could impact NFL betting?
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1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Notable free agents: Baker Mayfield (QB), Lavonte David (LB), Ryan Jensen (C), Devin White (LB)
Retaining Baker Mayfield remains critical as he seeks to stay in Tampa Bay, forming a crucial duo with Evans. While not the top free-agent quarterback, Mayfield ranks highly, adding to the team’s negotiation urgency.
The Bucs face uncertainty with Lavonte David, still effective at 34, and the potential departure of Devin White. Their off-season priorities are heavily influenced by the status of these pending free agents, with a significant emphasis on addressing defensive needs, especially if linebacker Shaquil Barrett is released.
Despite the success of rookies like YaYa Diaby and Calijah Kancey, who added a fresh pass rush, Tampa Bay’s defense still requires enhanced edge-rushing capabilities. This overarching need and their free-agent dilemmas outline the critical areas the Buccaneers must address to strengthen their roster effectively.
2. New Orleans Saints
Notable free agents: Andrus Peat (LT), Michael Thomas (WR), Jameis Winston (QB), Zack Baun (LB)
The Saints, known for avoiding rebuilds, lack championship-caliber assets, with a solid defense under Dennis Allen being an exception. Struggling to stay under the salary cap, their top-15 draft pick is crucial for reinforcing their lineup. The failed bet on Trevor Penning as the future left tackle has backfired, leading to a suboptimal offensive line configuration with Andrus Peat and James Hurst filling in.
Michael Thomas expected to be released
Jameis Winston expected to be releasedTyrann Mathieu new contract, lower annual salary, saving #Saints money
Taysom Hill next player in news?
Released as salary cap casualty?
New deal lowering his annual salary?Here’s @RossJacksonNOLA pic.twitter.com/Y6NEM47bdo
— Fletcher Mackel (@FletcherWDSU) March 8, 2024
Moreover, this year’s free agent class is lackluster due to constant cap issues and contract restructuring. Although Peat has adapted to tackle better than anticipated and offers versatility across the offensive line, his best days may be waning. Additionally, Michael Thomas no longer holds his All-Pro status, and Jameis Winston, transitioning from starting quarterback, now offers depth as a backup. This situation underscores the urgent need for strategic decisions to steer the Saints away from mediocrity.
There are odds for the Saints to unload RB Alvin Kamara, with the most likely landing spot being the Baltimore Ravens at +200. It’s a risky NFL bet, but the Saints could use the cap space.
3. Atlanta Falcons
Notable free agents: Calais Campbell (IDL), Cordarrelle Patterson (WR), Bud Dupree (EDGE)
Despite links to high-profile free agents like Kirk Cousins, the Falcons face financial constraints. Still, they have the means for significant signings, alongside a top-10 draft pick for the third year running, setting them up for a playoff push. Hindered last season by quarterbacks Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke, they’re now exploring all options under new coach Raheem Morris after Arthur Smith’s dismissal.
Despite Bud Dupree’s resurgence, his future is uncertain with the departure of defensive coach Ryan Nielsen. The team is at a critical juncture, aiming to revamp their roster to improve performance. Unless they make strong moves in the next few weeks, it will be hard to trust the Falcons with a bet online at +130 to win the NFC South.
One move the Falcons could make is signing Calvin Ridley. The Vegas betting odds on Ridley’s next team heavily favor Atlanta at +200.
Take A Look At These Other 2 NFL Special Articles
- NFC North Free Agency: NFL Odds, Futures, and Predictions
- Free Agency Preview: NFC East News and Offseason Player Props
4. Carolina Panthers
Notable free agents: Jeremy Chinn (S), DeShawn Williams (IDL), Troy Hill (CB)
Facing a rebuilding phase, the Carolina Panthers, without a first-round pick, must address multiple needs through free agency, notably to support quarterback Bryce Young.
Can Bryce Young be rescued? 🙈 🙉 🙊 pic.twitter.com/EYVPlvKJGA
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) February 29, 2024
Under new leadership from coach Dave Canales and GM Dan Morgan, the team aims to enhance its interior offensive line and secure reliable pass-catchers. Despite a tight budget with approximately $12 million in cap space, expected roster cuts could increase financial flexibility.
The urgency stems from a dismal 2-15 season and significant underperformance by receivers like DJ Chark and Jonathan Mingo, contributing to Young’s challenges in the pocket. Even the most pessimistic sports betting fans couldn’t have predicted how bad things would get for Carolina in 2023.
Additionally, while veteran Adam Thielen contributed a 1,000-yard season, his inability to stretch defenses has become apparent. Meanwhile, recognizing the importance of defense, Carolina has strategically placed the franchise tag on top pass rusher Brian Burns, signaling a comprehensive approach to their offseason strategy.
If you want to wager on the Panthers’ decision to tag Burns, he is +4000 on the NFL odds board to win the Defensive Player of the Year Award.
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Questions Of The Day
Who has the best odds to win the NFC South?
The Atlanta Falcons (+130) are the favorites to win the NFC South, while the Buccaneers (+220) and Saints (+280) are a close second and third. The Panthers aren’t worth even a thought to win the division at +1000.
Are there any MVP candidates in the NFC South?
The NFC South is represented on the MVP odds board, but at +6000, Baker Mayfield is the most likely candidate, and I’m not buying into that.
