Underdog Eagles Top Pick vs 49ers
Sunday brings us one of the season’s best matchups when the team with the best record in the NFL, the Philadelphia Eagles, hosts what many consider the best team in the league, the San Francisco 49ers. If you don’t believe that the 49ers are better on paper, I refer you to the NFL odds this week for Sunday’s showdown, which lists the Eagles as home underdogs at +3 on the spread.
Just because the 49ers have a slightly better team, this game will not be easy for the road favorites, and I see a lot of value in taking the Eagles to win outright at +135 on the moneyline.
Unique spot for Eagles (+2.5) Sunday vs. 49ers.
+ Philly would be 4th team w/ 90%+ win pct in game 12 or later to be home dog last 20 years
+ 2 of the previous 3 were due to backup QBs
+ Only non-backup? Big Ben in 2005 AFC Title game (+2.5) vs. NE: pic.twitter.com/WvUsSe0wbH
— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) November 27, 2023
Are Eagles Really This ‘Bad?’
It’s hard to look at the 10-1 Eagles and think of them as anything but favored in any matchup that steps up to challenge them. For the sportsbook to list Philly as underdogs at home, they must see a more significant gap in these teams than their records suggest.
A glance at the stats for both teams after 12 weeks shows a clear difference in defense between the two leaders on the Super Bowl odds board.
Despite being a slightly “better” team overall, the 49ers are guaranteed nothing on Sunday afternoon in Philly. Underdogs win daily in sports betting, and the Eagles are far from the average home dog. They are, after all, sporting the best record in the league.
While the Eagles may not have better players at every position, they outclass the 49ers where it counts. While the 49ers have a better running back in Christian McCaffrey, Philadelphia’s A.J. Brown, and DaVonta Smith are two of the most dangerous pass-catchers in the league. As a one-two punch, no pair is better, and it’s not even that close. I also give the Eagles an edge on the offensive line, which is a liability for the 49ers with their inconsistent OL.
Philly has a fantastic record against the NFL spread when playing at home. At 3-1-1, the Eagles boast a return on investment (ROI) of 33.33%, and bettors are up 1.90 units.
The Eagles are in this spot as underdogs because Philly’s defense has underperformed this season. Just a year after finishing as one of the best offenses in the world, 2023 has not been kind. The Eagles aren’t even an average defense and rank 20th in opponent points allowed and 19th in yards allowed per game.
The 49ers, meanwhile, have the top-ranked scoring defense in the NFL, allowing 15.5 yards per game and generally embarrassing opposing offenses.
I won’t argue that the stats don’t paint a clear picture, but that doesn’t mean that what “should” happen will happen. The Eagles have already recently overcome another Super Bowl contender, exacting revenge on the Chiefs after losing the title last season.
With the NFL Vegas betting odds for the Eagles so juicy, I’m willing to bet they show up and show the 49ers the door with a season-defining victory.
NFL bets Dec. 3: Philadelphia Eagles +135
Take A Look At These Other 2 NFL Special Articles
Explore the excitement of the upcoming NFL matchups with the latest NFL lines and Vegas NFL odds!
49ers vs Eagles Game Information
- Game: 49ers (8-3.) vs Eagles (10-1)
- Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
- Day/Time: Sunday, Dec. 3, 4:25 p.m. ET
- 49ers vs Eagles Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
Here’s a look at some NFL odds to consider!
49ers vs Eagles Betting Lines
Questions of the Day
Which team's offense is more likely to exploit the other team's defense?
That’s a tough call, considering both teams are tied as the third-highest-scoring offense at 28.2 points per game. But the Eagles’ defense ranks low in preventing points, so the 49ers are likelier to be the exploiters.
What are some ATS betting tips for this week's game?
Fade public money, do your research, and read articles on the Locker Room for the most up-to-date NFL betting trends and information.
