Week 16 NFL Betting Analysis

Last but not least, can Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers take care of business at home against Derrick Henry and the red-hot Tennessee Titans in one of the biggest matchups on Week 16?

With only two weeks of action remaining in the 2020 NFL regular season, let’s find out where the best value lies in all four Week 16 interconference matchups.

Before we do that, let’s take a look at the entire slate of Week 16 NFL odds.

Chicago Bears (7-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-13)

When: Sunday, Dec. 27, 2020, at 1:00 PM ET
Where: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville
TV: CBS

NFL Odds: Chicago -7½
Moneyline: Chicago -360/Jacksonville +300
Total: 47½

Analysis

The Bears have won two straight and sit alone in seventh place in the NFC. More importantly, oft-maligned quarterback Mitch Trubisky is playing very well right now. Starting the last four weeks, Trubisky has thrown eight TD passes and three interceptions. Over the last two games, the former North Carolina signal-caller has passed for a combined 469 yards with four TD passes and only one interception. Jacksonville has lost 13 consecutive games since winning its regular-season opener and probably wants to lose their remaining two, as they currently sit in place to get the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft.

Here is a look at the latest NFL division title odds.

Prediction

While Chicago has gone a discouraging 4-9 ATS in its last 13 road games, Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. Chicago needs the win here and I expect their stout defense to lead the way to victory while Trubisky comes up with another eye-opening performance.

Week 16 Pick: Bears 30 Jaguars 10

Check out the latest NFL Conference Championship odds.

Atlanta Falcons (4-10) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)

When: Sunday, Dec. 27, 2020, at 1:00 PM ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
TV: FOX

NFL Odds: Kansas City -10½
Moneyline: Atlanta +425/Kansas City -550
Total: 54

Analysis

Atlanta suffered its third horrific collapse this season losing to Tampa Bay 31-27 last weekend. The Falcons led 17-0 at the half and 24-21 after three quarters. Unfortunately, Atlanta was outscored 31-10 over the final two quarters, suffering their 10th loss of the season. Kansas City had their hands full against New Orleans on Sunday but managed to get past the Saints 32-29 as Patrick Mahomes tossed three TD passes.

Here is a look at the latest Super Bowl Odds

Prediction

I don’t see any way Atlanta pulls off the outright upset in this affair. I do think it’s likely the Falcons cover the spread as a double-digit road dog. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight-up loss and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. While Kansas City has gone 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games, the Chiefs are also just 1-5 ATS in their last six overall. I’m going with KC to get the home win, but Atlanta to cover in what looks like a shootout just waiting to happen!

Week 16 Pick: Kansas City 35 Atlanta 27

Here is a look at the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.

NY Giants (5-9) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

When: Sunday, Dec. 27, 2020, at 1:00 PM ET
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
TV: FOX

NFL Odds: Baltimore -11
Moneyline: New York N/A/Baltimore N/A
Total: 45

Betting Analysis

After winning their previous four games, the Giants have now dropped two straight including a humbling 20-6 smackdown loss at home against Cleveland last weekend. To make matters worse, the G-Men have problems at quarterback. Veteran backup Colt McCoy is mediocre at best and starter Daniel Jones has missed two of the last three games with a hamstring injury and ankle sprain.

Baltimore has won three straight to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Ravens currently are tied with Miami at 9-5, but sit in eighth place in the AFC race for seven playoff spots. Baltimore throttled Jacksonville en route to a commanding 40-14 win on Sunday. Lamar Jackson threw three TD passes and ran for another.

Check out the odds to win the 2020 NFL MVP award.

Prediction

To be blunt about it – I don’t see any way the Giants win this Week 16 matchup. New York has been held to 19 points or less in four straight games while scoring a combined 13 points the last two weeks. Baltimore has scored 34 points or more in three straight. They’ve topped the 40-point plateau in each of their last two games.

The Giants have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. And a blistering 22-8 ATS in their last 30 road games. Baltimore is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games in December and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record.

The spread might make you hesitant, but don’t let it. The favorite in this series has gone 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings while the home team in this matchup has gone 4-0 ATS in their last four. I like Baltimore to win and cover!

Week 16 Pick: Ravens 31 Giants 10

Tennessee Titans (10-4) at Green Bay Packers (11-3)

When: Sunday, Dec. 27, 2020 at 8:20 PM ET
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay
TV: NBC

NFL Odds: Green Bay -3½
Moneyline: Tennessee +155/Green Bay -175
Total: 56

Analysis

Tennessee is playing its best football of the season at just the right time. The Titans have won two straight and four of five, including an impressive 46-25 rout of Detroit on Sunday. Derrick Henry rushed for 147 yards and one score. Ryan Tannehill added three TD passes in the win. Green Bay has won four straight and six of its last seven, including a 24-16 win over the Carolina Panthers on Saturday. Aaron Rodgers passed for one TD and ran for another while Aaron Jones rushed 20 times for 145 yards and one score.

Prediction

The Packers might have the longer winning streak and they might be playing at home, but Green Bay looks ripe for an upset if you ask me. The Packers have largely struggled the last two weeks and they were limited to just three second-half points against Carolina last weekend. Remember, Green Bay was also held to just three second-half points in its 34-31 Week 11 collapse at Indianapolis.

Derrick Henry is routinely bowling opponents over and Ryan Tannehill has looked phenomenal the last few weeks. More importantly, the Titans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a winning home record. And they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five as a road dog. The Packers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven following a straight-up win. The underdog in this series has gone 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Tennessee wins outright to cover the spread!

Week 16 Pick: Titans 31 Packers 27