The Real Tournament Starts Now
The Group Stage Is Over and the Picture Is Clearer
The group stage is done, and the World Cup futures market has shifted accordingly. For the first time in this tournament, we have a real read on which teams are genuine contenders and which ones have been living on reputation.
France Sets the Pace
France leads the best odds for World Cup winners at +330, and the case is hard to argue with. A perfect group stage in Group I, three wins, 10 goals scored, two conceded, is the kind of statement that moves markets. The headline result was a 4-1 dismantling of Norway in the final group match, though it’s worth noting that Ståle Solbakken rested his entire first-choice lineup practically for that one.
Norway put out a B team, France put out their A team, and the scoreline reflected that gap. Does it take some of the shine off? Slightly. Did Les Bleus still make the point they needed to make? Absolutely.
Spain: Job Done, Questions Remain
Spain topped Group H with seven points, but nobody’s particularly excited about how they did it. The final match against Uruguay was functional at best and offered nothing to suggest a team ready to go deep in a knockout tournament.
Even the winning goal arrived with a whimper, Baena’s strike creeping in off a Muslera error rather than any genuine Spanish invention.
They’re through, they’re group winners, and their World Cup winner odds have drifted to +700 for good reason.
Argentina Makes Their Case
Messi has been doing Messi things, and the football world is watching with the kind of wide-eyed appreciation that only he can still generate. Argentina tops their group, looks defensively solid, and despite not facing the most demanding opposition in the group stage, they’ve earned their place in the 2026 World Cup odds top three at +400. The defending champions are building quietly, which is probably exactly how Scaloni wants it.
England: Convincing, Then Confusing
England topped their group but sent mixed signals along the way. The Croatia performance was everything Tuchel’s side can be: sharp, physical, clinical. The Ghana match, a goalless draw with heavy rotation, felt like a step backward. Panama brought them back to life. The 2026 World Cup odds have them at +700, which feels about right for a team that’s shown both its ceiling and its inconsistency within the same three matches.
The Long Shot Worth Watching
The USMNT closed the group stage on a sour note, a last-minute loss to Türkiye, settled by substitute Kaan Ayhan burying a rebound in the final seconds. After two electric opening performances, it was a deflating way to finish.
But the World Cup bets have actually improved to +3300, and if this team can rediscover that early-tournament energy in the knockouts, they might just be the Cinderella story this World Cup is waiting for. Long shot, yes. Worth completely dismissing? Not yet.
Ballon d’Or: The Race Is Heating Up
More matches mean more data, and the Ballon d’Or odds are moving fast. The story of the week belongs to Ousmane Dembélé, whose hat-trick against Norway showed a player operating at a level above almost everyone else in this tournament, dominant, versatile, and genuinely unplayable at his best. The Ballon d’Or predictions around him remain cautious about whether he can win back-to-back, but the on-pitch evidence keeps stacking up. He sits at +400.
Harry Kane remains the odds for Ballon d’Or favorite at +275, 3 goals into the tournament, and steady if not spectacular. Mbappé trails at +500. Yamal is still in the conversation at +600 in the Ballon d’Or 2026 odds, but the clock is ticking — the group stage didn’t give him the platform he needed, and the knockout rounds will require something closer to his best if he wants to stay relevant in this race.
