Before betting on the UFC, learn how the lines work. This is an intricate system from oddsmakers as plenty of ingredients go into this special sauce. After all the computations are made, we will see moneyline-style odds that look like this:
- Alex Pereira: +130
- Israel Adesanya: -175
In this prospective matchup, Adesanya is favored while Pereira is the underdog. A negative (-) symbol on the number indicates how much we have to bet to win $100. The positive (+) symbol indicates how much we win when betting $100. In this case, we need $175 to win $100 on a UFC bet on Adesanya. But a wager on Pereira pays $130 for a $100 stake.
In the case of a more “even” line, such as the totals (over/under), we will need to lay -115 or -110 for a payout. It’s close to a 50/50 wager, but the extra bucks we pay is called “juice” or “vig” and is customary for any type of sports wagering.
What Factors Influence UFC Odds?
Now that we’ve learned how to bet on the UFC, let’s break down what goes into the making of UFC odds. We won’t know exactly how or why the lines are what they are. But they are a combination of many factors, such as the fighters’ records, their fighting styles, age, physical condition, and how the public perceives them.
The last one is crucial as the bookies make UFC lines based on how they think the public, which is us bettors, will react. This is why old fighters, fighters on losing streaks, or those coming from knockout losses, get longer UFC betting odds. On the flip side, fighters in their prime, on winning streaks, or those coming from big wins may get shorter odds.
The public tends to view the former as unappealing, hence why the odds have to give a bit more to entice bettors to wager on them. But the latter will garner significant interest, hence having to pay a bit more to bet.
When do UFC Lines Come Out?
UFC lines tend to release early depending on a few factors. Big matchups involving “big-name” fighters like Conor McGregor or Jon Jones may get early betting lines even before their next fight is announced. But traditionally, we can expect UFC odds on a whole fight card a week or two before the event.
It may be better to bet on UFC fights early or late, depending on your strategy.
Some lines will get “steamed” (receive plenty of action) and shorten considerably. For these types of odds, it is better to beat the public and bet early – the early bird gets the worm!
But some lines may be better to leave alone momentarily, especially if you feel the public will bet against it. You may be able to get longer odds on a fighter the longer it goes.
What are the Most Common Prop Bets on UFC?
Other than betting on UFC moneyline (who wins the fight) and totals, UFC prop betting is another way to wager. Props are quickly becoming some of the most popular UFC picks due to their high payout potential. Some of the most common prop bets include:
- Method of Victory: bet on how a fighter wins: either by knockout or technical knockout (KO/TKO), submission, or by decision.
- Round of Victory: bet on when a fighter wins: either in Round 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 – alternatively, you can bet on a fighter to win by decision
- Method and Round Combination: as it states, this is a combination of the two above; this has the potential for a lucrative payout, though it can also be the most difficult to cash due to how specific it is
- Fight to go the Distance: bet on whether a fight will go to a decision (distance) or be finished; this is an alternative to betting on round totals (over/under) and may be easier to cash as far as UFC bets go
