What the Spread Says
The NFC South couldn’t have been tighter or weaker coming into Week 4 of the season. All four teams were 1-2 after three weeks. The Falcons and Saints will get together Monday night, and barring a tie, someone will have a .500 record.
The NFL odds expect a tight game with Atlanta at +1 heading into the Big Easy. The Saints are -120 on the money line with Atlanta at even money.
If you like the total market, in NFL Week 4 odds, that number sits at 48.
The mark lean on the point spread is a bit toward New Orleans, which is -115, with Atlanta at -105.
Other than suggesting a tight game, there is no actual key number from the one-point spread. One factor that could weigh is how emotional the game will be for the Saints and their fans as they remember the 20th anniversary of the first game in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.
What the Team Totals Reveal
NFL betting could not see a tighter matchup. The Saints play more wide-open contests, with them having scored 81 points and allowed 83. The Falcons have only scored 51 points while allowing 68. Remember, Atlanta got Michael Penix Jr. back and went into Green Bay and scored an impressive win in its last game.
The total of 48 suggests Atlanta’s defense may have a bigger role than New Orleans’ potent attack. Don’t fall prey to that because the Falcons did score 24 points at Green Bay. Draw a line through the first two games without Penix.
It could be more challenging for New Orleans to score than it has been in the first three games. This is a seesaw of a game, and that makes the total of 48 an intriguing number that needs a lot of thought and consideration.
Reading the Total
The total fits in the middle of your typical NFL game. They usually run from 45 to 55, with the overall span between the 30s and 60s. This suggests a 24-23 game or around that final score with a total of 48 points.
It will be interesting to see if Atlanta can quiet the New Orleans offense and if the Saints’ defense has answers for all the talent the Falcons have on offense led by Penix, Drake London, and the great Bijan Robinson.
Halves and Quarters
Don’t be surprised if this one is a grind when it comes to points late. There should be some drives that provide scores, whether TDs or field goals, in the first half. The first quarter could see Atlanta having to thwart an emotional New Orleans team.
Expect the game to become more intense with points at a premium after halftime. This one is indoors, so it could come down to a bunch of field goals.
Do not dismiss the Falcons. They have a strong defense, and the offense will come together with Penix at the controls.
Falcons at Saints Pick
With all the emotion, it will be interesting to see if New Orleans can make it last 60 minutes. Counting on Atlanta to be the team it showed in Green Bay and to force some turnovers.
Falcons at Saints Match Details
- Game: Monday, October 5, 2026 — 8:15 PM ET
- Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
- Broadcast: ESPN/ABC
- Storyline: Falcons lead the all-time series 58-56 and are on a two-game win streak, having won the last meeting 19-17 in January 2026
