Wednesday, September 2 · 6:40 EST · Progressive Field
What the Market Expects
The Toronto Blue Jays are on the road Wednesday and are playing for their wild-card lives. They face the Cleveland Guardians, and Toronto is the favorite in MLB odds at BetUS.
Toronto sits at -130 with Cleveland at +118. The total is seven runs, and the run line floats between Toronto -1½ (+140) and Cleveland +1½ (-160).
MLB lines BetUS suggest this will be a low-scoring game and a close one. That’s why it is an interesting game to examine if you bet on the MLB.
What the Team Totals Reveal
The Guardians won on Tuesday, and that means the series is split after four games.
They are close in the Wild-Card race with Cleveland ahead of the Jays. The Guardians are going with lefty Joey Cantillo on Wednesday. He will have to be as good as, if not better than, his 10-7 record with a 3.70 ERA because …
Toronto starter Dylan Cease has been lights out recently. The MLB odds have good reason to make the Jays the favorite here. Cease is 9-5 with a 2.33 ERA and 217 strikeouts in 150.1 innings.
In his last 30 innings pitched over five starts, Cease has allowed only seven earned runs. He’s become difficult for batters to solve.
Reading the Total
Expect Cease to go at least six innings here. And that is why the total is as low as it is on MLB lines BetUS. Seven is about as low as a total goes, and that is where this sits. Cantillo has allowed seven earned runs over his last five starts, but has only gone 22 innings in those games.
So, one could expect Cease and the Blue Jays to be in this one longer than the Cleveland starter. Advantage, Toronto.
Pick
Cease has been one of the best pitchers in baseball lately, and it is unlikely Cleveland will get to him. The run total of seven is too risky in MLB odds because, as good as Cantillo has been, the pressure of going against Toronto’s ace could be problematic.
One line. If the pick rests on something outside the board (a pitching read, a lineup note), say so explicitly, and say the board is neutral. Don’t imply the odds support you when they don’t.
