Thursday, September 17 · 7:15 EST · Citi Field
What the Market Expects
The New York Mets are last in the NL East. All that is left is for them to play spoiler. They will relish the role if they live up to MLB odds on Thursday against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Despite Philadelphia needing wins to try and catch Atlanta – highly unlikely – and clinch a wild-card spot, MLB lines have the Mets as -131 favorites with Philadelphia at +119. The total sits at 8 runs and the run line is Philadelphia +1½ (-175) and the Mets -1½ (+152).
The way this looks, New York’s Nolan McLean has a huge edge over Aaron Nola in the pitching matchup. Nola could be looked at as a reason the Phils are scrambling for a playoff spot.
What the Team Totals Reveal
The Phillies have won five of the nine games played thus far with New York. They have seven more before the regular season ends. Philadelphia needs to handle a team that has been out of the running for months.
Philadelphia is 43-34 coming into the game on the road; The Mets are 34-43 at home in a miserable season. They had been playing better before the recent series with the Orioles.
Philly is on the hook with Nolan through 2030, thanks to a seven-year, $172,000,000 deal. He has not lived up to it, going 6-10 this year with a 4.69 ERA. However, if you look at his last five starts, he has been in a groove, allowing six runs in 31.1 innings. This makes him an interesting option.
The Mets love the 25-year-old McLean, and he has an 11-9 mark with a 3.24 ERA for a bad team. New York has been outscored by 43 runs this year.
The moneyline is suggesting that McLean has a solid edge over Nola. That is where it gets tricky because Nola has recently been strong.
Reading the Total
The total sits at 8 runs, where the MLB norm is between 7 and 10. It is interesting because both of these pitchers have the ability to go six or seven innings. If they reach that late in the game, chances are this will be low-scoring.
Pick
The Mets are back to playing poor baseball, having lost four in a row. Getting a Phillies team in the playoff hunt as a road underdog with Nola on the mound feels like a great opportunity.
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