New England Patriots at Denver Broncos Betting Analysis
The Denver Broncos are the top seed in the AFC. They won’t be favored in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game. Why? NFL odds are going to have the New England Patriots as the favorite because Denver will be without quarterback Bo Nix (broken ankle).
The Broncos won a thriller in the divisional round against the Buffalo Bills in overtime to advance. However, it came at a price. On the next-to-last play before Wil Lutz’s game-winning field goal, Nix was tackled and suffered the season-ending injury.
That changed NFL betting big time because Denver’s backup QB is Jarrett Stidham. He was a one-time New England draft pick whom people hoped would follow Tom Brady as Patriots quarterback. It didn’t work out.
Stidham has bounced around and is now in the spotlight. He has not thrown a pass in the regular season since 2023 and is 1-3 overall as a starter.
That is why NFL Conference Championship Week odds have the Patriots as 4½-point favorites and -260 on the moneyline. The total is set at 42.
Now, before anyone thinks the Broncos have no chance, remember they have a great coach in Sean Payton, and New England is coming off a win over Houston in a game that saw eight turnovers. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye had trouble holding the football, fumbling four times and losing it twice.
There will be huge pressure on the Denver defense to keep the Broncos in the game. As unlikely as it seems for them to win, Payton should figure out a game plan that keeps the contest close. If the long-range forecast comes true, the weather will not be a factor. A high of 49 is called for on Sunday.
Pick: Broncos +4½ points
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks Betting Analysis
This will be round 3 for the top two teams in the NFC West. The Rams won the first meeting in Week 11, 21-19. The Seahawks answered in the rematch, taking a 38-37 victory in overtime. In two games, LA has scored 58 points while Seattle has scored 57. The Seahawks are the favorite in NFL odds with the line set at -2½ and the total at 47½.
These teams could not have taken different stops to get here. The Rams had to fight off the Panthers in the wild-card round and outlasted the Chicago Bears in overtime on Sunday. Seattle had no such threats. The Seahawks pummeled an injury-riddled 49ers team, 41-6, in their divisional round game.
Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold was iffy due to an oblique injury. He played and led the attack, Kenneth Walker III, who had a monster game. Seattle has great receivers in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp. The defense is ferocious.
The same could be said about Sean McVay’s Rams. They have a powerhouse offense with all sorts of receiving targets for Matthew Stafford. They also have a great 1-2 backfield punch with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum.
There is a great reason to think this could be a shootout. That said, both teams have excellent defenses, so it is truly hard to predict. The Seahawks -2½ points are the play, and they figure to be a strong favorite no matter what AFC team advances to Super Bowl 60.
Pick: Seahawks -2½ points
