Monday, September 14 · 6:40 EST · Progressive Field
What the Market Expects
This is a huge series with division and playoff implications. MLB odds understand that, and that is why this is a tight game. The Guardians have far more experience when it comes to important late-season games. Will the White Sox wilt under the pressure on the road, or will these young upstarts continue to surprise?
The Guardians are -146 on the moneyline, and the White Sox are +131. The total is seven, and the run line: Chicago is -175 (+1½) with Cleveland +152 (-1½)
Have to believe the total, which is set at 7 on MLB lines, is because of the importance of the game. Neither pitcher is that stalwart.
What the Team Totals Reveal
Chicago has won four of the last five against the Guardians. That gives the White Sox an overall 6-4 lead in the season series. It is also emblematic of the fact that Chicago has played better baseball than Cleveland in the long run.
The starting pitcher lean here would be toward Cleveland, which has Gavin Williams going. He is 13-7 with a 3.78 ERA. Williams has given up three runs in 13 innings over his previous two starts, both games Cleveland won.
On the other side, Davis Martin is 9-7 with a 4.05 ERA. He is good for about five innings a start, and that is exemplified by Martin going 10.2 innings over his last two appearances and allowing only one run. The problem is that the White Sox lost both of those games.
Reading the Total
The number on the total is quite low, at 7, if you bet on the MLB. One would normally expect to see this kind of number with a pair of aces on the mound. This isn’t quite that, for sure. Combine the starters’ overall ERA, and it suggests the run total could go over before they leave the game. And neither one is expected to go deep, deep, deep in the game.
Pick
The White Sox are struggling. Cleveland isn’t playing great but is better than Chicago. Go with the home team to move into first place with a win.
