Saturday, October 3 · 6:30 EST · Tropicana Field
What the Market Expects
The best teams left in the American League meet in Game 1 of an ALDS. That’s because MLB doesn’t re-seed after the wild card round. So the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays, who combined for 191 regular-season wins, will battle.
In case you are wondering, the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians combined for 169 wins.
The Rays have been wonderful all season. Once they took the lead, they never looked back in the AL East and come into this one -131 on MLB odds. The Yankees are +119.
If you bet on the MLB, the run total is 7, and the Yankees +1½ are -195 while TB is -1½ at +168.
The MLB lines lean toward Tampa Bay in this opener. They have a balanced attack, and starter Drew Rasmussen has had a great season. In fact, in his most recent start, he went 6.2 innings in the Bronx and allowed one run and one hit
It doesn’t matter if it is Gerrit Cole or anyone else; the home run-dependent Yankees will be up against it, and the MLB odds suggest that.
What the Team Totals Reveal
This series feels like it is the American Championship Series. The Yankees and Rays met 13 times in the regular season, with Tampa Bay winning seven games.
The totals lean toward Tampa Bay in many categories. They just have more balance than the Yankees. Keep an eye on whether Giancarlo Stanton or Aaron Judge can go. Even if the sluggers can, will they be rusty?
Tampa Bay doesn’t have such problems. The Rays have a great player in Junior Caminero, who hit 42 home runs and 101 RBI to lead the team. The Rays outscored opponents by 86 runs while the Yankees were a plus 138 in the category.
Give Tampa Bay the edge on the mound here, and that will be crucial.
Reading the Total
The run total of 7 is on the low end for MLB, which normally sees games at 7 to 10.
Rasmussen should be able to go deep for Tampa Bay, and Cole will be tested to go more than five, maybe six. He isn’t the dominant ace he has been in the past. That is what the Yankees have been playing coy about: whether he will be their starter.
Logic says Max Fried and Cam Schlittler should get their rest and be ready for other games.
Pick
Rasmussen handled the Yankees in the Bronx recently, and there is no reason to think the Bomber bats will solve him on the road.
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